Trump declared the deal with Iran over
A key political moment was Trump’s speech ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara. When asked whether the memorandum of understanding with Iran was still in effect, Trump replied that, in his view, it was over and that he no longer wished to negotiate with Tehran. The president thus declared the ceasefire over upon his arrival at the NATO summit, with his remarks following U.S. strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement, signed on June 17, was intended to be a transitional step toward a more permanent peace framework following the war that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. The latest attacks therefore not only impacted the current security situation but also undermined the chance of transforming the temporary ceasefire into a more stable agreement.
The U.S. struck back following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. military response came after attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy routes. The U.S. struck Iranian targets in response to the attacks on shipping, and U.S. Central Command announced that among the targets struck were more than 60 small boats used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. According to a U.S. official, the strikes also targeted air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites. At the same time, they struck more than 80 Iranian targets in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. These figures indicate that Washington did not focus solely on a symbolic response, but rather on a more extensive weakening of Iranian capabilities that could threaten maritime traffic.
Iran responded with attacks on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Following the U.S. strikes, Iran announced that its Revolutionary Guards had struck U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran also claimed to have shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone that was allegedly interfering with the operation. This aspect of the escalation is particularly significant because it has extended the conflict to the broader Persian Gulf region, where significant U.S. military capabilities are located and where any deterioration in security immediately heightens tensions in energy markets. Iran also accused Washington of violating the ceasefire and linked the latest U.S. actions not only to military strikes but also to renewed pressure on Iranian oil exports. No civilian casualties were reported in Iran following the U.S. strikes. [2]
Oil Prices Spiked Following the Resurgence of Security Risks
The oil market reacted immediately to the escalation. The price of Brent crude jumped by more than 4% to $79 per barrel, marking the sharpest daily increase since late May.* The reason was not just Donald Trump’s statement alone, but a broader combination of attacks on tankers, U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation, and concerns about security in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data, at least four oil and gas tankers turned back instead of attempting to pass through the strait. At the same time, the U.S. revoked a license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department on June 22 that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products until August 21. Following its revocation, Iran was given until July 17 to complete its transactions, which further increased uncertainty regarding the availability of Iranian oil on the market. [3]
Brent crude oil price trends over the past five years*
[1,2,3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which is subject to change. Such statements do not guarantee future results. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.
* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources:
